EUR/USD: Coiling efforts around 38.2% retracement continue. While below 1.3658 trendline resistance, risk remains lower to 1.3244.
USD/JPY: Breakout above 83.69/75 chart/78.6% retracement resistance sets up for further risk higher to probe 84.52 high.
GBP/USD: Channel breakout yesterday results in probe of long-term downward trendline spanning from the August 2009 high. Risk is for re-test of the 1.6280 high.
USD/CHF: Market breaks through near-term upward trendline and looks set to test 38.2% retracement. Corrective risk is back to .9552/24, but broader basing still under way.
USD/CAD: Market respecting .9835/31 support lows. While below .9905 resistance, pressure will remain lower to .9711 support.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
EUR/GBP remains under pressure and attention is now focussed on the 2007-2011 uptrend, which is located at .8320. This is likely to hold the initial test and we would allow for some profit taking from here.
USD/JPY has eroded resistance at 83.70/75. This is the 78.6% retracement of the December to January down move and the January high. The break above here is expected to trigger further gains to the 84.41/51 recent highs. This is likely to provoke some near term profit taking. However note that we have a confirmed buy signal on the DMI (directional movement indicator), this means that we consider this resistance is now exposed. Longer term we target 88.00/15.
USD/JPY has eroded resistance at 83.70/75. This is the 78.6% retracement of the December to January down move and the January high. The break above here is expected to trigger further gains to the 84.41/51 recent highs. This is likely to provoke some near term profit taking. However note that we have a confirmed buy signal on the DMI (directional movement indicator), this means that we consider this resistance is now exposed. Longer term we target 88.00/15.
Friday, February 4, 2011
EUR/CHF: Erratic range trading resurfaces after resistance was found at 1.3040. However we still feel bias is now higher to 1.3208 while above 1.2777 support.
EUR/GBP: Downtrend begins to accelerate lower, and this morning is probing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support. Risk below here to .8400 and then 78.6% retracement of .8368
EUR/JPY: Failure at 112.90/93 results in an aggressive sell off through 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support at 111.28. Topping structure signals risk to 109.57
EUR/SEK: Lower highs and lows continue to keep medium-term focus set on next major support at 8.4858. Today we see risk lower to 8.7720
EUR/NOK: Violation of 7.8471 ensures a lower low and opens up immediate risk to 7.7790, but ultimately we maintain our 7.7031 target.
NOK/SEK: Market has broken above its medium-term downward trendline and is up probing pivot resistance zone at 1.1298/96, with a marginal break above to 1.1308.
EUR/GBP: Downtrend begins to accelerate lower, and this morning is probing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support. Risk below here to .8400 and then 78.6% retracement of .8368
EUR/JPY: Failure at 112.90/93 results in an aggressive sell off through 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support at 111.28. Topping structure signals risk to 109.57
EUR/SEK: Lower highs and lows continue to keep medium-term focus set on next major support at 8.4858. Today we see risk lower to 8.7720
EUR/NOK: Violation of 7.8471 ensures a lower low and opens up immediate risk to 7.7790, but ultimately we maintain our 7.7031 target.
NOK/SEK: Market has broken above its medium-term downward trendline and is up probing pivot resistance zone at 1.1298/96, with a marginal break above to 1.1308.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
EUR/USD: Flat, buy a dip to 1.3735 for 1.3965; exit 1.3694
USD/JPY: Long at 81.35 for 83.17; reverse to short here or through 80.88
GBP/USD: Still running long from 1.5855, now for 1.6294; reverse to short here (back long above 1.6311) or exit to flat below 1.6134
USD/CHF: Flat, enter short at .9442 for .9305 where we would cover to long (reverse back short below .9294). Stop/reverse short to long above .9492
AUD/USD: Unwanted short now through 1.0079; would reverse to long at scratch or above 1.0120 for 1.0248. Reverse to short here (back long above 1.0266).
NZD/USD: Flat, short preferred today at .7727 or break below .7685 for .7604. Exit to flat above .7756
USD/CAD: Short at 1.0024 for .9846; exit/ reverse long here (back short below .9816) or to flat above 1.0003
USD/JPY: Long at 81.35 for 83.17; reverse to short here or through 80.88
GBP/USD: Still running long from 1.5855, now for 1.6294; reverse to short here (back long above 1.6311) or exit to flat below 1.6134
USD/CHF: Flat, enter short at .9442 for .9305 where we would cover to long (reverse back short below .9294). Stop/reverse short to long above .9492
AUD/USD: Unwanted short now through 1.0079; would reverse to long at scratch or above 1.0120 for 1.0248. Reverse to short here (back long above 1.0266).
NZD/USD: Flat, short preferred today at .7727 or break below .7685 for .7604. Exit to flat above .7756
USD/CAD: Short at 1.0024 for .9846; exit/ reverse long here (back short below .9816) or to flat above 1.0003
EURUSD play 1.3750 - 1.3850 range, with a preference to sell rallies
USDCHF play .9360/65-.9450 range
EURCHF buy dips 1.2950/55, s/l below 1.2920, t/p 1.3010
EURJPY sell rallies 112.80-113.00, s/l above 113.50, t/p 111.50
USDJPY sell 82.05/10, s/l 82.35, look for a re-drift to the current range
GBPUSD play a 1.6140 - 1.6240 range
EURGBP play 0.8490 - 0.8530 range
Gold play 1325-40 range, preference to sell rallies
Silver play 27.80-28.50 range
USDCHF play .9360/65-.9450 range
EURCHF buy dips 1.2950/55, s/l below 1.2920, t/p 1.3010
EURJPY sell rallies 112.80-113.00, s/l above 113.50, t/p 111.50
USDJPY sell 82.05/10, s/l 82.35, look for a re-drift to the current range
GBPUSD play a 1.6140 - 1.6240 range
EURGBP play 0.8490 - 0.8530 range
Gold play 1325-40 range, preference to sell rallies
Silver play 27.80-28.50 range
EUR/USD we note that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new high. While this reflects a slight loss of upside momentum it has not yet provoked reversal. Our central forecast remains for the rally to extend to 1.3978/1.4000. This is where the 78.6% retracement and psychological resistance meet. A move to but failure here remains our favoured scenario. Note the 200 week moving average is also found in this vicinity at 1.3956.
GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.
USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).
GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.
USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).
EUR/USD we note that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new high. While this reflects a slight loss of upside momentum it has not yet provoked reversal. Our central forecast remains for the rally to extend to 1.3978/1.4000. This is where the 78.6% retracement and psychological resistance meet. A move to but failure here remains our favoured scenario. Note the 200 week moving average is also found in this vicinity at 1.3956.
GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.
USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).
GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.
USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).
AUD/USD: The current rally is expected to fizzle out ahead of the December peak at 1.0258.
NZD/USD: Remains sidelined but now with a bullish slant. Should stay below the .7816/76 area, though.
USD/CAD: Drops back towards the May 2008 low at .9820. Below it remains the .9758/11 support zone.
EUR/AUD: Is losing short term upside momentum but holds around its pivot. Should be well supported.
EUR/NZD: Remains overall bullish despite its current minor retracement lower.
EUR/CAD: Trades within the 1.3749/62 resistance area which we anticipate to cap it in the short term at least.
NZD/USD: Remains sidelined but now with a bullish slant. Should stay below the .7816/76 area, though.
USD/CAD: Drops back towards the May 2008 low at .9820. Below it remains the .9758/11 support zone.
EUR/AUD: Is losing short term upside momentum but holds around its pivot. Should be well supported.
EUR/NZD: Remains overall bullish despite its current minor retracement lower.
EUR/CAD: Trades within the 1.3749/62 resistance area which we anticipate to cap it in the short term at least.
EUR/CHF: Short at 1.2953, target now 1.2828, stop/reverse at 1.3012.
EUR/GBP: Short from .8636, reduce stop to .8629, targeting .8502.
EUR/JPY: Short from 112.42. Target now 110.31, stop placed at 113.62.
EUR/SEK: Sell strength to 8.8600, target 8.4920, with stop at 8.9100.
EUR/NOK: Long from 7.8001, targeting 7.9979, stop/reverse now 7.8710
NOK/SEK: Stopped out and reversed long from 1.1198. Target/reverse at 1.1231, and stop/reverse placed at 1.1135
AUD/NZD: Short at 1.2924, add at 1.3062, stop 1.3108, target 1.2779.
EUR/GBP: Short from .8636, reduce stop to .8629, targeting .8502.
EUR/JPY: Short from 112.42. Target now 110.31, stop placed at 113.62.
EUR/SEK: Sell strength to 8.8600, target 8.4920, with stop at 8.9100.
EUR/NOK: Long from 7.8001, targeting 7.9979, stop/reverse now 7.8710
NOK/SEK: Stopped out and reversed long from 1.1198. Target/reverse at 1.1231, and stop/reverse placed at 1.1135
AUD/NZD: Short at 1.2924, add at 1.3062, stop 1.3108, target 1.2779.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Spot Gold: Head and shoulders top remains valid but the gold price looks short term sidelined now.
Spot Silver: Now that our first downside target at 26.42 has been reached a minor corrective bounce is seen.
Gold/Silver Ratio: Last week’s recovery rally was short lived with the Dec. 2006 low at 45.26 being back in view.
Palladium: Continues to trade within the significant 800/837.50 resistance area which remains key.
Platinum: Minor bounce is seen but the 1742/29 support zone will remain in focus as long as 1853.50 caps.
Spot Silver: Now that our first downside target at 26.42 has been reached a minor corrective bounce is seen.
Gold/Silver Ratio: Last week’s recovery rally was short lived with the Dec. 2006 low at 45.26 being back in view.
Palladium: Continues to trade within the significant 800/837.50 resistance area which remains key.
Platinum: Minor bounce is seen but the 1742/29 support zone will remain in focus as long as 1853.50 caps.
Monday, January 31, 2011
EUR/USD: Solid rebound without approach to important 1.3539 support. Poised at topping resistance 1.3736/41, break aims quickly at 1.3788. Mid-month risk then to 1.3980
GBP/USD: Aggressive bullish ?outside? pattern to break out from last Tuesday?s range to target 1.6095/97. Critical above is the 2009-11 range resistance line at 1.6200
USD/JPY: Break below 81.85 points at 81.55, through which sees a still more defensive bias. 81.25/80.93 area should provide stronger support and a Q1 buying opportunity
GBP/USD: Aggressive bullish ?outside? pattern to break out from last Tuesday?s range to target 1.6095/97. Critical above is the 2009-11 range resistance line at 1.6200
USD/JPY: Break below 81.85 points at 81.55, through which sees a still more defensive bias. 81.25/80.93 area should provide stronger support and a Q1 buying opportunity
Following on from Friday’s sharp drop to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the November-to-January descent at 1.3571, EUR/USD is trading back at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3739. Should it and the January 1.3759 high be surpassed, the late November high at 1.3789 will be engaged.
USD/CHF continues to pounder the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-January advance at .9404. It is still attempting to stabilise here, but will need to regain .9578, the 20 day moving average in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure.
GBP/USD has now overshot its three month resistance line at 1.6016 and is on track to reach the 1.6095/1.6109 resistance zone.
USD/JPY is slipping through its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early January’s advance at 81.99 and could retest the 81.52/26 support zone but should hold there.
USD/CHF continues to pounder the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-January advance at .9404. It is still attempting to stabilise here, but will need to regain .9578, the 20 day moving average in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure.
GBP/USD has now overshot its three month resistance line at 1.6016 and is on track to reach the 1.6095/1.6109 resistance zone.
USD/JPY is slipping through its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early January’s advance at 81.99 and could retest the 81.52/26 support zone but should hold there.
EUR/CHF: Short from 1.2891, with target extended to 1.2659, and stop placed at 1.2870.
EUR/GBP: Short from .8636, stop at .8702, targeting .8502.
EUR/JPY: Stopped out and flipped short at 112.42. Target set at 109.59, with stop placed at 113.52.
EUR/SEK: Buy at 8.8340 or through 8.8941, targeting 8.9500, with stop placed at 8.8176 (if long from 8.8340) or 8.8320 (if long from 8.8941).
EUR/GBP: Short from .8636, stop at .8702, targeting .8502.
EUR/JPY: Stopped out and flipped short at 112.42. Target set at 109.59, with stop placed at 113.52.
EUR/SEK: Buy at 8.8340 or through 8.8941, targeting 8.9500, with stop placed at 8.8176 (if long from 8.8340) or 8.8320 (if long from 8.8941).
Sunday, January 30, 2011
EUR/USD has been rejected by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November-to-January decline at 1.3739 and has tumbled back to the 50% retracement at 1.3571. This has underpinned for the past 24 hours but we continue to allow for a slide back to the 1.3500/1.3316 support area (December high and 55 day moving average) but suspect that we may see another up swing from here.
USD/CHF continues to probe the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-January advance at .9404. It is still attempting to stabilise here, but will need to regain .9573, the 20 day moving average in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure. Thursday’s intraday low at .9390 should be revisited on Monday. It is still seen as the last defence for the .9319/00 support area (15 year support line and December low).
USD/JPY is slipping through its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early January’s advance at 81.99 but so far remains above last week’s low at 81.85, having been capped by the 83.08/15 resistance area last week. Should 81.85 not hold, the 81.52/24 region should do so. It encompasses the 78.6% retracement of the January rise and the three month support line.
USD/CHF continues to probe the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-January advance at .9404. It is still attempting to stabilise here, but will need to regain .9573, the 20 day moving average in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure. Thursday’s intraday low at .9390 should be revisited on Monday. It is still seen as the last defence for the .9319/00 support area (15 year support line and December low).
USD/JPY is slipping through its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early January’s advance at 81.99 but so far remains above last week’s low at 81.85, having been capped by the 83.08/15 resistance area last week. Should 81.85 not hold, the 81.52/24 region should do so. It encompasses the 78.6% retracement of the January rise and the three month support line.
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