EUR/USD we note that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new high. While this reflects a slight loss of upside momentum it has not yet provoked reversal. Our central forecast remains for the rally to extend to 1.3978/1.4000. This is where the 78.6% retracement and psychological resistance meet. A move to but failure here remains our favoured scenario. Note the 200 week moving average is also found in this vicinity at 1.3956.

GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.

USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).