EUR/USD: Coiling efforts around 38.2% retracement continue. While below 1.3658 trendline resistance, risk remains lower to 1.3244.

USD/JPY: Breakout above 83.69/75 chart/78.6% retracement resistance sets up for further risk higher to probe 84.52 high.

GBP/USD: Channel breakout yesterday results in probe of long-term downward trendline spanning from the August 2009 high. Risk is for re-test of the 1.6280 high.

USD/CHF: Market breaks through near-term upward trendline and looks set to test 38.2% retracement. Corrective risk is back to .9552/24, but broader basing still under way.

USD/CAD: Market respecting .9835/31 support lows. While below .9905 resistance, pressure will remain lower to .9711 support.

EUR/GBP remains under pressure and attention is now focussed on the 2007-2011 uptrend, which is located at .8320. This is likely to hold the initial test and we would allow for some profit taking from here.

USD/JPY has eroded resistance at 83.70/75. This is the 78.6% retracement of the December to January down move and the January high. The break above here is expected to trigger further gains to the 84.41/51 recent highs. This is likely to provoke some near term profit taking. However note that we have a confirmed buy signal on the DMI (directional movement indicator), this means that we consider this resistance is now exposed. Longer term we target 88.00/15.

EUR/CHF: Erratic range trading resurfaces after resistance was found at 1.3040. However we still feel bias is now higher to 1.3208 while above 1.2777 support.

EUR/GBP: Downtrend begins to accelerate lower, and this morning is probing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support. Risk below here to .8400 and then 78.6% retracement of .8368

EUR/JPY: Failure at 112.90/93 results in an aggressive sell off through 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support at 111.28. Topping structure signals risk to 109.57

EUR/SEK: Lower highs and lows continue to keep medium-term focus set on next major support at 8.4858. Today we see risk lower to 8.7720

EUR/NOK: Violation of 7.8471 ensures a lower low and opens up immediate risk to 7.7790, but ultimately we maintain our 7.7031 target.

NOK/SEK: Market has broken above its medium-term downward trendline and is up probing pivot resistance zone at 1.1298/96, with a marginal break above to 1.1308.

EUR/USD: Flat, buy a dip to 1.3735 for 1.3965; exit 1.3694

USD/JPY: Long at 81.35 for 83.17; reverse to short here or through 80.88

GBP/USD: Still running long from 1.5855, now for 1.6294; reverse to short here (back long above 1.6311) or exit to flat below 1.6134

USD/CHF: Flat, enter short at .9442 for .9305 where we would cover to long (reverse back short below .9294). Stop/reverse short to long above .9492

AUD/USD: Unwanted short now through 1.0079; would reverse to long at scratch or above 1.0120 for 1.0248. Reverse to short here (back long above 1.0266).

NZD/USD: Flat, short preferred today at .7727 or break below .7685 for .7604. Exit to flat above .7756

USD/CAD: Short at 1.0024 for .9846; exit/ reverse long here (back short below .9816) or to flat above 1.0003

EURUSD play 1.3750 - 1.3850 range, with a preference to sell rallies

USDCHF play .9360/65-.9450 range

EURCHF buy dips 1.2950/55, s/l below 1.2920, t/p 1.3010

EURJPY sell rallies 112.80-113.00, s/l above 113.50, t/p 111.50

USDJPY sell 82.05/10, s/l 82.35, look for a re-drift to the current range

GBPUSD play a 1.6140 - 1.6240 range

EURGBP play 0.8490 - 0.8530 range

Gold play 1325-40 range, preference to sell rallies

Silver play 27.80-28.50 range

EUR/USD we note that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new high. While this reflects a slight loss of upside momentum it has not yet provoked reversal. Our central forecast remains for the rally to extend to 1.3978/1.4000. This is where the 78.6% retracement and psychological resistance meet. A move to but failure here remains our favoured scenario. Note the 200 week moving average is also found in this vicinity at 1.3956.

GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.

USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).

EUR/USD we note that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new high. While this reflects a slight loss of upside momentum it has not yet provoked reversal. Our central forecast remains for the rally to extend to 1.3978/1.4000. This is where the 78.6% retracement and psychological resistance meet. A move to but failure here remains our favoured scenario. Note the 200 week moving average is also found in this vicinity at 1.3956.

GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.

USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).

AUD/USD: The current rally is expected to fizzle out ahead of the December peak at 1.0258.

NZD/USD: Remains sidelined but now with a bullish slant. Should stay below the .7816/76 area, though.

USD/CAD: Drops back towards the May 2008 low at .9820. Below it remains the .9758/11 support zone.

EUR/AUD: Is losing short term upside momentum but holds around its pivot. Should be well supported.

EUR/NZD: Remains overall bullish despite its current minor retracement lower.

EUR/CAD: Trades within the 1.3749/62 resistance area which we anticipate to cap it in the short term at least.

EUR/CHF: Short at 1.2953, target now 1.2828, stop/reverse at 1.3012.

EUR/GBP: Short from .8636, reduce stop to .8629, targeting .8502.

EUR/JPY: Short from 112.42. Target now 110.31, stop placed at 113.62.

EUR/SEK: Sell strength to 8.8600, target 8.4920, with stop at 8.9100.

EUR/NOK: Long from 7.8001, targeting 7.9979, stop/reverse now 7.8710

NOK/SEK: Stopped out and reversed long from 1.1198. Target/reverse at 1.1231, and stop/reverse placed at 1.1135

AUD/NZD: Short at 1.2924, add at 1.3062, stop 1.3108, target 1.2779.

Spot Gold: Head and shoulders top remains valid but the gold price looks short term sidelined now.
Spot Silver: Now that our first downside target at 26.42 has been reached a minor corrective bounce is seen.
Gold/Silver Ratio: Last week’s recovery rally was short lived with the Dec. 2006 low at 45.26 being back in view.
Palladium: Continues to trade within the significant 800/837.50 resistance area which remains key.
Platinum: Minor bounce is seen but the 1742/29 support zone will remain in focus as long as 1853.50 caps.