EUR/USD: Coiling efforts around 38.2% retracement continue. While below 1.3658 trendline resistance, risk remains lower to 1.3244.

USD/JPY: Breakout above 83.69/75 chart/78.6% retracement resistance sets up for further risk higher to probe 84.52 high.

GBP/USD: Channel breakout yesterday results in probe of long-term downward trendline spanning from the August 2009 high. Risk is for re-test of the 1.6280 high.

USD/CHF: Market breaks through near-term upward trendline and looks set to test 38.2% retracement. Corrective risk is back to .9552/24, but broader basing still under way.

USD/CAD: Market respecting .9835/31 support lows. While below .9905 resistance, pressure will remain lower to .9711 support.

EUR/GBP remains under pressure and attention is now focussed on the 2007-2011 uptrend, which is located at .8320. This is likely to hold the initial test and we would allow for some profit taking from here.

USD/JPY has eroded resistance at 83.70/75. This is the 78.6% retracement of the December to January down move and the January high. The break above here is expected to trigger further gains to the 84.41/51 recent highs. This is likely to provoke some near term profit taking. However note that we have a confirmed buy signal on the DMI (directional movement indicator), this means that we consider this resistance is now exposed. Longer term we target 88.00/15.

EUR/CHF: Erratic range trading resurfaces after resistance was found at 1.3040. However we still feel bias is now higher to 1.3208 while above 1.2777 support.

EUR/GBP: Downtrend begins to accelerate lower, and this morning is probing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support. Risk below here to .8400 and then 78.6% retracement of .8368

EUR/JPY: Failure at 112.90/93 results in an aggressive sell off through 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support at 111.28. Topping structure signals risk to 109.57

EUR/SEK: Lower highs and lows continue to keep medium-term focus set on next major support at 8.4858. Today we see risk lower to 8.7720

EUR/NOK: Violation of 7.8471 ensures a lower low and opens up immediate risk to 7.7790, but ultimately we maintain our 7.7031 target.

NOK/SEK: Market has broken above its medium-term downward trendline and is up probing pivot resistance zone at 1.1298/96, with a marginal break above to 1.1308.

EUR/USD: Flat, buy a dip to 1.3735 for 1.3965; exit 1.3694

USD/JPY: Long at 81.35 for 83.17; reverse to short here or through 80.88

GBP/USD: Still running long from 1.5855, now for 1.6294; reverse to short here (back long above 1.6311) or exit to flat below 1.6134

USD/CHF: Flat, enter short at .9442 for .9305 where we would cover to long (reverse back short below .9294). Stop/reverse short to long above .9492

AUD/USD: Unwanted short now through 1.0079; would reverse to long at scratch or above 1.0120 for 1.0248. Reverse to short here (back long above 1.0266).

NZD/USD: Flat, short preferred today at .7727 or break below .7685 for .7604. Exit to flat above .7756

USD/CAD: Short at 1.0024 for .9846; exit/ reverse long here (back short below .9816) or to flat above 1.0003

EURUSD play 1.3750 - 1.3850 range, with a preference to sell rallies

USDCHF play .9360/65-.9450 range

EURCHF buy dips 1.2950/55, s/l below 1.2920, t/p 1.3010

EURJPY sell rallies 112.80-113.00, s/l above 113.50, t/p 111.50

USDJPY sell 82.05/10, s/l 82.35, look for a re-drift to the current range

GBPUSD play a 1.6140 - 1.6240 range

EURGBP play 0.8490 - 0.8530 range

Gold play 1325-40 range, preference to sell rallies

Silver play 27.80-28.50 range

EUR/USD we note that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new high. While this reflects a slight loss of upside momentum it has not yet provoked reversal. Our central forecast remains for the rally to extend to 1.3978/1.4000. This is where the 78.6% retracement and psychological resistance meet. A move to but failure here remains our favoured scenario. Note the 200 week moving average is also found in this vicinity at 1.3956.

GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.

USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).

EUR/USD we note that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new high. While this reflects a slight loss of upside momentum it has not yet provoked reversal. Our central forecast remains for the rally to extend to 1.3978/1.4000. This is where the 78.6% retracement and psychological resistance meet. A move to but failure here remains our favoured scenario. Note the 200 week moving average is also found in this vicinity at 1.3956.

GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense – we have the 1.6300/2010 high, the 1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the 1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid 1.60 area.

USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the .9318/00 support area (15 year support line and December low). Ideally we would like to see this hold and provoke reversal once more. However failure here will target .9120 (target from point and figure chart).

AUD/USD: The current rally is expected to fizzle out ahead of the December peak at 1.0258.

NZD/USD: Remains sidelined but now with a bullish slant. Should stay below the .7816/76 area, though.

USD/CAD: Drops back towards the May 2008 low at .9820. Below it remains the .9758/11 support zone.

EUR/AUD: Is losing short term upside momentum but holds around its pivot. Should be well supported.

EUR/NZD: Remains overall bullish despite its current minor retracement lower.

EUR/CAD: Trades within the 1.3749/62 resistance area which we anticipate to cap it in the short term at least.

EUR/CHF: Short at 1.2953, target now 1.2828, stop/reverse at 1.3012.

EUR/GBP: Short from .8636, reduce stop to .8629, targeting .8502.

EUR/JPY: Short from 112.42. Target now 110.31, stop placed at 113.62.

EUR/SEK: Sell strength to 8.8600, target 8.4920, with stop at 8.9100.

EUR/NOK: Long from 7.8001, targeting 7.9979, stop/reverse now 7.8710

NOK/SEK: Stopped out and reversed long from 1.1198. Target/reverse at 1.1231, and stop/reverse placed at 1.1135

AUD/NZD: Short at 1.2924, add at 1.3062, stop 1.3108, target 1.2779.

Spot Gold: Head and shoulders top remains valid but the gold price looks short term sidelined now.
Spot Silver: Now that our first downside target at 26.42 has been reached a minor corrective bounce is seen.
Gold/Silver Ratio: Last week’s recovery rally was short lived with the Dec. 2006 low at 45.26 being back in view.
Palladium: Continues to trade within the significant 800/837.50 resistance area which remains key.
Platinum: Minor bounce is seen but the 1742/29 support zone will remain in focus as long as 1853.50 caps.

EUR/USD: Solid rebound without approach to important 1.3539 support. Poised at topping resistance 1.3736/41, break aims quickly at 1.3788. Mid-month risk then to 1.3980

GBP/USD: Aggressive bullish ?outside? pattern to break out from last Tuesday?s range to target 1.6095/97. Critical above is the 2009-11 range resistance line at 1.6200

USD/JPY: Break below 81.85 points at 81.55, through which sees a still more defensive bias. 81.25/80.93 area should provide stronger support and a Q1 buying opportunity

Following on from Friday’s sharp drop to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the November-to-January descent at 1.3571, EUR/USD is trading back at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3739. Should it and the January 1.3759 high be surpassed, the late November high at 1.3789 will be engaged.

USD/CHF continues to pounder the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-January advance at .9404. It is still attempting to stabilise here, but will need to regain .9578, the 20 day moving average in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure.

GBP/USD has now overshot its three month resistance line at 1.6016 and is on track to reach the 1.6095/1.6109 resistance zone.

USD/JPY is slipping through its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early January’s advance at 81.99 and could retest the 81.52/26 support zone but should hold there.

Carry currencies outperforming in rally vs USD

EURUSD back to yesterday's highs, AUDUSD trades through parity

Asian currencies slightly stronger, Asian equities mixed

European PMIs likely to remain in expansion territory

Further gain in US manufacturing ISM should support USDJPY

EUR/CHF: Short from 1.2891, with target extended to 1.2659, and stop placed at 1.2870.

EUR/GBP: Short from .8636, stop at .8702, targeting .8502.

EUR/JPY: Stopped out and flipped short at 112.42. Target set at 109.59, with stop placed at 113.52.

EUR/SEK: Buy at 8.8340 or through 8.8941, targeting 8.9500, with stop placed at 8.8176 (if long from 8.8340) or 8.8320 (if long from 8.8941).

EUR/USD has been rejected by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November-to-January decline at 1.3739 and has tumbled back to the 50% retracement at 1.3571. This has underpinned for the past 24 hours but we continue to allow for a slide back to the 1.3500/1.3316 support area (December high and 55 day moving average) but suspect that we may see another up swing from here.

USD/CHF continues to probe the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-January advance at .9404. It is still attempting to stabilise here, but will need to regain .9573, the 20 day moving average in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure. Thursday’s intraday low at .9390 should be revisited on Monday. It is still seen as the last defence for the .9319/00 support area (15 year support line and December low).

USD/JPY is slipping through its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early January’s advance at 81.99 but so far remains above last week’s low at 81.85, having been capped by the 83.08/15 resistance area last week. Should 81.85 not hold, the 81.52/24 region should do so. It encompasses the 78.6% retracement of the January rise and the three month support line.

EURUSD sell rallies 1.3740-60, s/l 1.3800, t/p 1.3640

USDCHF buy dips 0.9420-40, s/l below 0.9400, t/p 0.9520

EURCHF buy dips 1.2930-50, s/l below 1.2910, t/p 1.3050

EURJPY buy dips 113.05, add 112.80, s/l under 112.40, and look for a squeeze up to higher 113s later

USDJPY sell rallies 82.75/80, add at 83.00, s/l above 83.25, t/p 82.25

GBPUSD sell rallies 1.5960, s/l above 1.6000, t/p 1.5840

EURGBP buy 0.8600, t/p 0.8660, s/l below 0.8570

Gold buy around 1305-1307, t/p 1320-22, s/l 1297

Silver buy 26.35-40, t/p 27.00-05, s/l 26.10

Platinum buy 1755-60, t/p 1795-00, s/l 1745

Palladium buy 780-85, t/p 810-12, s/l 775

Majors mixed, GBP underperforming on weak confidence data

Asian currencies in ranges vs USD, equities down 0.3-1%

A strong US Q4 GDP is likely supportive of USD vs JPY and EUR

Swiss KoF likely declined in January

JPY tends to weaken vs. USD and GBP during the Chinese New Year

EUR/CHF: Flat. Go long at 1.2826, target/reverse at 1.2987, with stop reverse/placed at 1.2782.

EUR/GBP: Sell at .8636, add at .8691, stop at .8702, targeting .8558.

EUR/JPY: Short from 112.22, for 109.67, with stop placed at 113.38.

EUR/SEK: Stopped out in the money at 8.9337.

EUR/NOK: Long from 7.8001, targeting 7.9979, tighten stop to 7.8401.

NOK/SEK: Flat. Stopped out at 1.1276.

AUD/NZD: Short at 1.2996, targeting 1.2839. Tighten stop to 1.3026

EUR/USD: Nudging higher to eye key resistance at 1.3740/88. Early February threat still higher to 1.3980

GBP/USD: A robust rebound after the aggressive bearish ?outside? Tuesday above 1.5915/20 lends a more resilient consolidation theme. Above 1.6020 needed to re-energize bullish pressures

USD/CHF: Prodding final retrace support, .9405, with threat still lower to the record low at .9300 and to extension objective, .9200, for early February

EUR/USD is approaching the 61.8% retracement resistance at 1.3739, (of the move down from November to January). This together with 1.3789, the 22nd November high is likely to provoke some profit taking. We would allow for the possibility of a slide back to 1.3500/1.3346 (the December high and 20 day ma), but suspect that we may see another upswing from here.

USD/CHF has sold off to .9405, the 78.6% retracement (of the rally higher seen in January). It is attempting to stabilise here, but will need to regain .9568, the 20 day ma in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure. This support at .9400/05 is considered the last defense for the .9318/00 support (recent low and 15 year support line).

GBP/USD charted an inside day yesterday, attempting to stabilise following Tuesdays sharp sell off. The market has recently failed at resistance at 1.6090/95 (78.6% retracement of the move November to December) and sold off aggressively. Initial downside target of 1.5717/03, the 55 day ma and 50% retracement and we may again see some consolidation here. We favour eventual failure however and further weakness to 1.5500 then 1.5464, the 200 day ma.

Some signals

AUD/USD: Remains range bound but may soon be slipping back towards support at .9812/04.

NZD/USD: Remains sidelined but with a bearish slant. Should remain below the .7816/42 resistance area.

USD/CAD: Still trades above the May 2008 low at .9820. Below it remains the .9758/11 support zone.

EUR/AUD: A reversal higher is in the making with the resistance area at 1.3924/1.4047 being in focus.

EUR/NZD: Break out of the downtrend channel is bullish but may be capped in the very short term now.

EUR/CAD: Since resistance at 1.3563/94 has been overcome our medium term outlook has been neutralized.

Peoople,

Im off to Switzerland...Alpine skiing is my name!

We will hear each other on thursday.

Have a nice week in trading room and also in life.

honest regards...

S&R

EURUSD play 1.3420 -1.3540 range

USDCHF play .9600-.9700 range

EURCHF buy dips above 1.3000, s/l below 1.2950, t/p 1.3100

EURJPY sell rallies 112.05/10, s/l 112.35, t/p 111.30

USDJPY buy dips at 82.60-40, s/l below 81.80, t/p 83.10/15

GBPUSD sell rallies 1.5960, s/l above 1.6010, t/p 1.5850

EURGBP play 0.8450 - 0.8490 range

Gold buy around 1342-43, t/p 1353-55, s/l 1338

Silver buy around 2725-30, t/p 27.65-70, s/l 27.15

Platinum buy around 1800-1802, t/p 1820-22, s/l 1795

Palladium buy around 795-98, t/p 816-18, s/l 790

SIGNALS

EUR/USD has NOT produced any follow through following the break of the 1.3500 level and we have yet to clear this on a closing basis. The market lacks the impetus currently to break higher it seems. Intraday a break below 1.3395 would be the first indication that the market was set to ease back to the 20 day ma at 1.3241. Below here will target the 1.3067/200 day ma.

EUR/JPY remains bid and has virtually reached initial target at 112.15/20, the December high and 112.32, the 200 day ma. We would allow for some profit taking here. It is worth noting that the market has not been above its 200 day ma since January 2010. Above here would target 113.55 en route to the 114.75/95 resistance.

EUR/CHF merely held sideways below its 55 day ma at 1.2955, and has now surged higher to the 1.3030/70 initial target. This is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from October and July 2010 low. We would not be surprised to see this hold the initial test. Beyond here we look for gains to the 1.3437/200 day ma.

S&R

EURUSD Support: 1.3420 1.3360/70 1.3240/55 1.3150/70 1.3070 1.2860

EURUSD Resistance: 1.3540 1.3575 1.3635 1.3790

USDJPY resistance 82.50, 83.50, 84.00 (December high)

USDJPY support 81.80-70 (stops/support), 81.50, 80.90

EURJPY resistance 110.90-111.25, 112.00

EURJPY support 110.00, 109.40, 108.50

USDCHF Support 0.9525, 0.9300 Resistance 0.9777 (100dma), 0.9875EURCHF Support 1.2740 (23.6% fibbo, strong) Resistance 1.3000

SIGNALS AND SOME VIEWS

EUR/CHF: Long from 1.2780, targeting 1.3125, stop at 1.2578.

EUR/GBP: Unwanted short from .8373, stop at .8521, targeting .8069.

EUR/JPY: Buy setback to 109.68, targeting 114.35, with stop/reverse placed at 109.32 (targeting 108.26 on the latter).

EUR/SEK: Long again from 8.9089, target 9.0156, tighten stop to 8.8819.

EUR/NOK: Long again from 7.8001, with stop at 7.7011, targeting 7.9979.

NOK/SEK: Stopped out of long at 1.1362. Sell bounce to 1.1413, with stop/reverse placed at 1.1427, targeting 1.1332.

AUD/NZD: Stopped out and reversed long at 1.3011. Place stop/reverse now at 1.2924, and target set at 1.3178.

SOME TRADING TIPS FROM THE WORLD

EUR/USD: Long through 1.3525 for 1.3730, where we would reverse to short or on break below 1.3425

USD/JPY: Short through 82.29 for 81.26, where we would reverse to long or back above 82.76

GBP/USD: Long for 1.6090, reverse to short here (stop/reverse above 1.6011) or through 1.5868.

USD/CHF: Short at .9605 for .9506, where we would reverse to long (reverse short below .9479). Exit to flat above .9666

AUD/USD: Reversed long to short at 1.0074 for .9905. Exit to long here (back short below .9888) or to flat above .9993

NZD/USD: Flat. Would enter long at .7614 for 7784, with stop/reverse here or below .7544

USD/CAD: Long above .9942 for 1.0030. Reverse to short here or back below .9948

PAIRS TO WATCH

EUR/USD: Push through 1.3499 December peak secures more robust base into mid-Q1 and points to a challenge to 1.3740/88 targets

USD/JPY: Top reinforced by activity below 82.32/30 and probe of retrace support at 82.00. Risk still lower to 81.55; but only thorough 81.15/80.93 signals a more bearish tone

USD/CHF: Further support erosion points to 61.8% retrace support, .9485. Only through here targets a retest of the .9300 cycle low

NZD/USD: Significant setback from ahead of key .7816/39 targets. Through .7609 warns of a more notable top, with surrender of .7550 confirming

EURUSD and GBPUSD

EUR/USD is proving to be extremely resilient at these levels and our attention remains riveted on the 1.3500 level, this must hold to leave our neutral to negative bias intact. EUR/USD remains in a bear trend short term while below 1.3500. While capped here, we continue to look for a slide back to 1.2795, the 61.8% retracement of the move seen in the second half of 2010. Intraday a break back below the 20 day ma at 1.3204 should be enough to refocus attention on the downside. However the upside risk is now growing, a close above 1.3500 will negate this view for a recovery to 1.3739/86 then 1.3978/1.4000.

GBP/USD has maintained upside pressure and is poised to encounter the next resistance at 1.6090/95, this is the 78.6% retracement of the move November to December and is regarded as the last defence for the 2009-2011 downtrend, which lies at 1.6215.

Some more signals for you

EUR/CHF: Recovery back towards 1.2950/55 resistance zone, implies uptrend still dominant. We continue to expect an upside break and continuation towards 1.3208.

EUR/GBP: Market continues to coil higher. Risk today is initially to 61.8% retracement at .8435 and then to .8464, the 78.6% retracement resistance.

EUR/JPY: Uptrend continues, with the market prodding marginally above 78.6% Fibonacci retrace at 111.06 to a high of 111.17. Risk remains higher to 111.95/112.22.

EUR/SEK: Coiling continues, with market trapped between 8.9352 resistance and 8.8915 support. Broad risks remain through 8.9352 to 9.0193/9.0205 resistance.

EUR/NOK: Consolidation continues but, after finding support at 7.7790, broad risks remain higher through 7.8878.

AUD/NZD: Market probing medium-term downward trendline around 1.2970. We expect upside risk to be capped by 1.2993 resistance and for a re-test of 1.2828 to occur.

It is all about the news

Some trading tips alive:

AUD/USD: Short term recovery is taking place but remains medium term toppish at present.

NZD/USD: Probes the November-to-January resistance line but is likely to stay medium term sidelined.

USD/CAD: Still has the May 2008 low at .9820 in its sights. Below it lurks the .9758/11 support zone.

EUR/AUD: Staged a recovery rally and probes its long term channel resistance line at 1.3466 which may cap.

EUR/NZD: Recent bounce back should soon run out of steam. Medium term picture remains bearish for now.

EUR/CAD: Recovery should soon fizzle out. We will maintain our bearish outlook while below 1.3563/94.